Energy: Inspiration for the future Essays in honour of Jos Bruggink’s retirement from ECN
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چکیده
The predictive value of long-termenergy scenario models is close to none.Why then do we use these models, notably for ongoing activities of theIPCC? This essay briefly describes tworecent examples demonstrating thatparticularly integrated assessmentmodels that simulate or optimizeenergy-economy-climate interactionspossess no practical use when it comesto forecasting: nuclear energy andhydrogen technology. We also point out that long-term energy scenariomodeling may nevertheless provideuseful insight, but for differentpurposes, such as answering ‘What if’questions.
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